WOW!  I sure got that call (Yesterday) wrong.  Thank god for stops.  Its back to the drawing board for me.   Trade safe.

Rick

PS That cycles model I showed yesterday was wrong.  When I calculated the "SMARTMED" from XLEHLERS.xla which I used as an input for the SSA analysis, I did not make sure I had the correct High Low and Close columns.  I ended up feeding OPEN HIGH and LOW in to the SMARTMED algorithm which messed thing up.  Its fixed now and shows more downside before the up cycle kicks in.

SPX SSA (CYCLES) MODEL

Hi Again Traders,

As you know Midas is not my only tool that helps me know where the market is heading.   I also like Gann, DSP, the occasional Astronomic forecast and of course "cycles".  Here is a SSA (singular spectrum analysis) model that uses the first 8 principle components.  It also has a 40 bar MEM (Maximum Entropy) forecast and two sigma (i.e. 2 standard deviations or 95% confidence) bands. As you can see today's low is way below the lower band.  This tells me todays low will probably stick, that and the cycles are turning UP.  If you are wondering how this chart was made, watch my XLCYCLES video on the Home page.

SPX MidasTrading Bands Update

Hello Traders,

Here is an update on the Midas Trading bands chart I first posted on July 25. (Click on the chart to open it in a new window)  Today the S&P made a lower low as did OBV.  That tells me the 2008 bear is not over yet but... the S&P is now at a level where a good rally should get started.   This rally should last for several weeks (at least) considering the election (US POTUS) draws near.   Also yesterday I heard there is a lot of money on the sidelines in cash (25% of S&P valuation) so there is fuel for a rally (once investors calm down, and there is some clarity in the financial sector that is.)  

The current S&P price is well below the OBV vs Price trendline (blue squiggly line) and that is where rallies are expected.  Also the low came in right at forecasted support.   It looks to me like a new set of trading bands may be forming.   I'm figuring the top of that octave would be the May 19th 1440 high and that the price has just bounced of the "fa" note of the new new octave.  Interesting times these are...

Rick

Midas POTUS update

Hi Traders,

Well we've entered the homestretch for the US presidential election and its time to take a look at what the MIDAS is saying.   The historical data is provided by inTrade.com where you can bet on these sorts of things.   

In case you haven't been following this US "drama", the stage is set for Obama/Biden v.  McCain/Palin.  I've attached a Midas Chart which clearly shows what most of us are feeling.... the momentum is clearly in McCain's favor.   He bounced off his primary support (blue line) a while back and has taken off (almost parabolic) since his savy addition of Gov. Palin to his ticket at the end of last month.  He's due for a pull back though.

Obama on the otherhand, whom many thought was a shoe-in, has broken his primary support (green line) and is now in  a confirmed strong downtrend.   Obviously there is still penty of time for "fortunes" to reverse (October surprises etc.) but for now... odds favor McCain.

ps... these are my stricktly my non-partisan analytical observations... do not misconstrue this analysis as an endorsement of one candidate or the other.