XLTrader's Chart-of-the-Day

Chart Update and Planet S/R

2009-07-30T16:00:00.002-07:00

XLMidas S/R and Parallel offset curves

2009-06-27T08:28:00.003-07:00

Hello,

This week's screencast shows how to prepare a Midas chart for the S&P 500. Midas is the acronym for the late Dr. Paul Levine's Market Interpretation/Data Analysis System. I cover S/R (support or resistance) curves and the parallel offset. These two tools form the backbone of the extremely powerful Midas method. In another screencast I'll discuss Topfinder, Midas moving average and Granville's On-Balance-Volume which helps us to interpret Midas charts, but for now... take 4 minutes and see some Midas S/R magic.

Rick

XLCycles SSA smoothing with 95% Confidence Bands

2009-06-19T14:48:00.003-07:00

Hi Guys,

As I promised here is a re-do of the video showing how to put 95% confidence bands around the SSA smoothed reconstruction of price. I'll do another video soon discussing the parameters which make up an SSA analysis such as embedding dimensions and RC components (which are summed to arrive at the smoothed reconstruction).

Rick

Trading with Triangle Points

2009-06-02T14:59:00.003-07:00

Hi Folks,

Here's my first "talky" screencast.

-> http://www.technical-analysis-addins.com/blog/index.php

I must apologize as I don't have a voice for radio and am, its seems, perpetually congested especially this time of year... anyway... The subject is triangle points. I love this method. One thing to keep in mind that I don't covered in the screencast is that these vectors seem to increase (and decrease) in the "just" ocatve ratios (i.e. the integer ones 9/8, 6/5, 5/4, 4/3, 3/2, 15/16, 2 etc). So if the market doesn't reverse where you're expecting, watch the next interval out. Trade well

Rick

PS I found a error in the point selection algorithm in the XLAngles. So if you want to try this at home (which I recommend) and if you are using Office 2007, download the bug fixed version of XLAngles I put in the files area. (Just swap out the old one)

S&P 500 Gann Charts

2009-05-31T14:00:00.004-07:00

Hi Folks,

I'm experimenting with Vblogging. Here are some current Gann charts on the S&P500
http://www.technical-analysis-addins.com/blog/index.php

New Office 97 Version...

2009-05-13T10:44:00.003-07:00

Hi Folks,

One of our members who uses Office 97 brought to my attention a problem with the new HLC_Chart template. Consequently I have had to produce an Office 97 specific version of the template and add-ins. I also found and fixed some other issues related to the early versions of VBA (missing functions). Anyone using Office 97 should download from the files area, the XLTraderOffice97.zip

While i was fixing the Office 97 template I also came across a bug that found its way into all versions. The scale factor for Gann Angles, and the Futia Price/Time square in XLANGLES and the scale factor for Fibonacci angles in XLFIBONACCI was not working. People that wish to update to the bug-fixed version should download the appropriate zip from the files. If you've got the most recent version already installed, simply swapping out the old XLAngles.xla and XLFibonacci.xla for the new ones should resolve the issue.

Sorry for these inconvenience but unfortunately there are differences between different versions of Excel that reek havoc. I'm working pretty much exclusively in Office 2007 these days so if you find a bug in the other versions I would very much appreciate your letting me know so I can attempt to fix it.

Have a great day!

Sincerely,

Rick
aka xltrader

New Version(s) Released

2009-05-04T14:31:00.002-07:00

Hello,

Today I am pleased to announce I have released the latest verion of XLTrader Add-ins for both Office 97-2003 and Office 2007. The Zip files can be found in the group files area. My aim with this release was to make things easier for those who are less familiar with Excel.

1) Data downloading (from Yahoo! Finance) has gotten much easier. The HLC_CHart template now asks you, when you first launch it, if you want to set it up for automatic downloading. If you say yes it presents a form not unlike XLYahoo that asks for the symbol, frequency , start and stop dates etc. It then downloads the latest data from Yahoo and sets the template up so that all you have to do to update it is press a button on the template toolbar (in the future when more historical data is available). You can change the default path if its not working (Yahoo sometimes (fortunately rarely) changes it)

2) All forms now default to the next available column on the data sheet. You only need to choose a column for output from the drop box if you intend to overwrite an existing data series.

3) All Array formulas now extend well into the future. You no longer need to manually edit your array formulas to reflect new data once new data becomes available.

4) There are a couple of new feature in XLAngles: Carl Futia's Price Time Squaring method, and Stevenson Price Time targets.

5) The TA-LIB stochastics was added to the XLIndicators form

6) A "price time coordinates" Algorithm was added to XLTools (so now you can click any place on the chart (on a remote spiral location for instance) and find the corresponding price and time.

7) THe Office 2007 version now uses the native XLM file formats (i.e XLSM, XLAM and XLTM)

8) You can now install an add-in by double clicking it....

Well that's about all the changes I can remember at this time. Everyone should upgrade to the appropriate version.

Here is a quick sneek peek at what I'm working on:

1) Everyone will soon be issued a password to the members area on the website. That is where links to the most recent versions of the add-ins will be in the future.

2) Yahoo! Intraday is now a reality using the great little add-in that is free at Greenturtle.us Im working on how best to get that data-stream into XLTrader. Everyone interested in intraday TA (of stocks on Yahoo! Finance) should get a copy of the Yahoo realtime add-in at http://www.greenturtle.us/

3) Front end for the Swiss Ephemeris dll. This is the premier digital ephemeris and the price is right.... its free for personal use!

4) Videos.... more instruction is on the way.

That's about it for now but I'm always open to your suggestions. Please feel free to post to the group. The more activity we generate, the more people will join us.

Rick
aka XLTrader

XLTrader Office 2007

2009-01-14T15:37:00.003-07:00

Hello Everyone,

Today I released two new versions of the Add-ins. One version v1.03 is for Office 2007 and resolves some plotting and other incompatibility issues. I have a new Office 2007 specific help page located at http://www.technical-analysis-addins.com/office2007/index.htm. The other version v1.021 is for all other Excel incarnations.

The only major change included in v1.021 is that I added automatic plotting to XLEHLERS and XLINDICATORS when selected with a chartsheet visible. You no longer need to be on the Data sheet to use those add-ins and automtic plotting makes them much easier to work with. You no longer need to add the series to the chart after they've been created since its done for you (great with things like the ribbon function which has 42 separate series). If you use XLINDICATORS or XLEHLERS you should download the latest version otherwise skip it.

If you are using Office 2007 make sure you get the service pack (1) offered by Microsoft. Installing it greatly improved the performance on my machine. Office 2007 definitely takes some getting used to and I have mixed opinions about it but... it is the future. The next major release of the add-ins v2.0 will be designed from the ground up for Office 2007 including use of the new file formats and a new Ribbon based user interface. I cannot yet say when that will be available or what other features it will have. I'm open to your suggestions though.

Regards
Rick (xltrader)

S&P Midas

2008-11-20T14:35:00.006-07:00

Here's a quick update. S&P (SHOULD) find support at about 732 tomorrow. Man what a market huh! Who would have ever thought a year ago that in less than a year we would be back where we were in '97 and probably going lower.

Midas Chart

Crazy Markets...

2008-11-13T16:09:00.008-07:00

Triangle Points
Here are some Triangle Points.. As you can see time is ripe for a rally

Andrew's Medianline
Here is a Median Line Chart. It just barely missed support coming off the August 16 th (2007) low and took off like a rocket.

Paul Levine's Midas
Here is a Midas Chart on the SPX... It touched support this AM and took off like a rocket

So what does it mean? I don't think a bottom is in yet. OBV made a lower low. The economy is terrible and getting worse. So-called "Leaders" everywhere are openly proclaiming the dawn of World Government (as if it is even up to them). Hubris... they think they can get away with anything. And apparently they can make the market jump up and down more than 10% in a day. Its amazing what stealing and printing trillions of dollars can make it possible for the PPT (Reagan's working market crime comittee) to achieve. Ceste la vive ... Trade Safe! Be Nimble... be very nimble.

S&P SSA and Triangle Pts.

2008-10-21T12:39:00.004-07:00

Here's a S & P 500 daily chart, this time SSA with a 40 bar maximum entropy forecast and triangle points. I use highs and lows and apex's of other triangles as the inputs to triangle points. It amazes me how the angles land on top of each other.

On another note.... We know Gann loved squares of 144. But why he loved 144 is not so clear. I believe the answer can be found in sacred geometry and an excellent book on the subject is: The Dimensions of Paradise by Michell. I give it 5 stars.

SPX Midas Weely

2008-10-21T10:01:00.002-07:00

Here's a MIDAS chart on weekly S&P 500 (^GSPC) data. As the market plunged couple weeks back, piercing through all support levels like a hot knife through butter, this method (specifically a parallel offset from 2002 low of Midas S/R curve from the 2000 high) would have shown us where to anticipate the carnage to end... at least temporarily. All I can say is WOW... this market feels like the end .

2008-09-17T14:45:00.002-07:00

WOW! I sure got that call (Yesterday) wrong. Thank god for stops. Its back to the drawing board for me. Trade safe.

Rick

PS That cycles model I showed yesterday was wrong. When I calculated the "SMARTMED" from XLEHLERS.xla which I used as an input for the SSA analysis, I did not make sure I had the correct High Low and Close columns. I ended up feeding OPEN HIGH and LOW in to the SMARTMED algorithm which messed thing up. Its fixed now and shows more downside before the up cycle kicks in.

SPX SSA (CYCLES) MODEL

2008-09-16T14:07:00.003-07:00

Hi Again Traders,

As you know Midas is not my only tool that helps me know where the market is heading. I also like Gann, DSP, the occasional Astronomic forecast and of course "cycles". Here is a SSA (singular spectrum analysis) model that uses the first 8 principle components. It also has a 40 bar MEM (Maximum Entropy) forecast and two sigma (i.e. 2 standard deviations or 95% confidence) bands. As you can see today's low is way below the lower band. This tells me todays low will probably stick, that and the cycles are turning UP. If you are wondering how this chart was made, watch my XLCYCLES video on the Home page.

SPX MidasTrading Bands Update

2008-09-16T13:23:00.003-07:00

Hello Traders,

Here is an update on the Midas Trading bands chart I first posted on July 25. (Click on the chart to open it in a new window) Today the S&P made a lower low as did OBV. That tells me the 2008 bear is not over yet but... the S&P is now at a level where a good rally should get started. This rally should last for several weeks (at least) considering the election (US POTUS) draws near. Also yesterday I heard there is a lot of money on the sidelines in cash (25% of S&P valuation) so there is fuel for a rally (once investors calm down, and there is some clarity in the financial sector that is.)

The current S&P price is well below the OBV vs Price trendline (blue squiggly line) and that is where rallies are expected. Also the low came in right at forecasted support. It looks to me like a new set of trading bands may be forming. I'm figuring the top of that octave would be the May 19th 1440 high and that the price has just bounced of the "fa" note of the new new octave. Interesting times these are...

Rick

Midas POTUS update

2008-09-12T12:43:00.004-07:00

Hi Traders,

Well we've entered the homestretch for the US presidential election and its time to take a look at what the MIDAS is saying. The historical data is provided by inTrade.com where you can bet on these sorts of things.

In case you haven't been following this US "drama", the stage is set for Obama/Biden v. McCain/Palin. I've attached a Midas Chart which clearly shows what most of us are feeling.... the momentum is clearly in McCain's favor. He bounced off his primary support (blue line) a while back and has taken off (almost parabolic) since his savy addition of Gov. Palin to his ticket at the end of last month. He's due for a pull back though.

Obama on the otherhand, whom many thought was a shoe-in, has broken his primary support (green line) and is now in a confirmed strong downtrend. Obviously there is still penty of time for "fortunes" to reverse (October surprises etc.) but for now... odds favor McCain.

ps... these are my stricktly my non-partisan analytical observations... do not misconstrue this analysis as an endorsement of one candidate or the other.

GANN Price-Time Highway

2008-08-01T08:33:00.002-07:00

XLtrader's chart-o-the-day blog

Greetings Market Timers,

Here's a roadmap. I call this thing as Gann's Price Time Highway. Once again this is the S&P 500 trading days. Notice how price has generally "stayed in its lane" since the high @ 1576 last year, only turning when it reaches major intersections (gravity centers)? Remarkable isn't it?

Some will recognize this as Don Hall's Pyrapoint, which is short for Pyramid Point referring to the the Square of Nine. Its almost pyrapoint. I've encorporated the changes recommended by Howard Arlington in a past issue of Trader's World magazine. Have a great weekend.

Rick

Triangle Points

2008-08-01T08:09:00.002-07:00

Good Morning,

Today I'd like to show you some equilateral triangles applied to the S&P 500. These were put on using a scale of 2. Why a scale of 2? Because 2 seem to work. Experiment! Notice how most of the major turns since the high last year occur a nexus of triangle apex's (depicted by vertical lines)? Notice how these things can have predictive potential? Why does it work? Who knows... I wish I did. Up next... Riding the Gann price-time highway.

S&P 500 Midas Trading Bands

2008-07-25T22:01:00.005-07:00

(click to enlarge)

http://technical-analysis-addins.com/blog/index.php

Today's Chart is a combination of Midas and Gurdjieffian Octave (vibration) theory. We get the trading range by dividing the "totality" (i.e. high of 1576 in October of last year) by 7 (because there are 7 intervals in the diatonic octave). This gives a theoretical trading band range of 225 pts. Next I start a Midas curve on the secondary high that occurred Oct 31st 2007. That curve turns out to be note "la". At each CIT I put a parallel offset and by the time the first low gets put in, I've got the (notes) levels all defined. I'll shut up and let the chart speak for itself.

Andrews Median Lines

2008-07-23T14:59:00.003-07:00

Sometimes the geometry of markets just amazes me. Here is an example of the Andrews median line method. Notice how the Green median line, made using the secondary top late last year and the low in January, overlays (perfectly) exactly the more recent blue median line? Why is that?

Anyway here is another trick. If you put a link to the url that has your data on the chart, you can simply click on it to fetch more data. In the lower left, that string of text is the following:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=%5EGSPC&a=04&b=21&c=2007&d=10&e=21&f=2008&g=d&ignore=.csv

Notice that I edited the last month to read October (and its only July). That way every time I click on that link I get Yahoo!'s most recent data. Its still manual (as apposed to automation) but it makes it very easy to update.

Obama Midas Update

2008-05-07T17:42:00.003-07:00

Hi Guys,

Here is an update of the Obama midas chart I showed a few days ago

Click to Enlarge

I also put together a chart of intrade.com's 2008.pres.Obama tradeable here:

Click to Enlarge

Looks Like Midas works as well with presidential candidates as it does with stocks. You can download raw data for the various candidates at: http://www.intrade.com/partners.jsp?ZID=4775&AID=1&CID=2&page=trade&selConID=376100

Obama Midas

2008-05-02T06:15:00.001-07:00

Hi Guys,

I thought I'd take a look at what MIDAS says about Barack Obama's trend. Where looking at the Real Clear Politics poll of polls for the entire US. This is a survey of voter' preference for the Democratic candidate. Obama took off on a strong up trend at the first of the Year. Midas did a good job of showing where his support was. With this latest "Reverend Wright" eruption though, his downward momentum broke through his first line of support.

Click to Enlarge

While Clinton (Dashed red line) has been trending down to sideways since she peaked last October, It looks to me like Obama has been in a deep correction amidst a strong uptrend. Obama looks like a buy at about 45%. His support should bounce there then resume the uptrend which could head to the upper 50's.

Midas status

2007-08-27T17:39:00.000-07:00

Here's what Midas says about S&P... bumping up against resistance here.

Cycle Forecast Update

2006-12-14T13:36:00.000-07:00

Seasons Greatings everyone,

Click Here for an update to that cycle forecast I made a few weeks back. So far so good... Looks like the market could rally right on into the new year.

New Cyclical Model

2006-11-20T07:53:00.000-07:00

Hi everybody,

First let me welcome our new readers to XLTrader-Talk, feel free to post messages and I apologize for not opening the door sooner. Gmail is supposed to ring the doorbell but it did not do that for some reason. Anyway enough of the excuses. I've been busy finishing programming the last addin: XLCycle.xla I also came up with a new model using the tools in XLCycle. Check it out:

8 Click Here to see a new Cyclical Model

As you can see (especially the yellow line) it is predicting a "scorch" higher later this week and into next. If I'm right the message boards will be full of top calling "non-believers". Since last summer's bottom, the market is up 14% and now we're in the seasonally strong period. The models confirm these facts but just as night turns into day, this bull will one day end.

If you have not found it already, check out the S&P500 ChartART page here:

8 Click Here for S&P500 ChartArt

Those spreadsheets are on "autoupdate" (that is when I leave my computer turned on) so check back often to see for yourselves how they evolve. Special note to our American readers: have a nice turkey day but try not to overeat (they say the averge American gains 7 lbs. between now and the first of the year!)

-XLTrader